This week I'd like to take a quick look at the BHEC license renewal update and new license issuance numbers for the Fiscal Year 2022 to date. This has everything to do with you and how full your schedule remains. I remind you that the BHEC fiscal year begins Oct 1, not Jan 1. It doesn't really matter much 'cause 4 calendar quarters is 4 quarters. BTW, if you're not a nuts & bolts kinda person with the math you can skip down to the "Bottom-Line This For Me" section and you'll be good. If you wanna check my math then you'll have to read the entire article.

BHEC License Renewal Update

Let's start with how many of our approximately 84,000 current licensees are renewing. According to the Performance Measures spreadsheet that was part of the pdf info packet at May's BHEC meeting, we're expecting half of that total, or 42,000 licensees, to be eligible to renew in this fiscal year. Remember, ours is a two-year renewal cycle. So where are we to date?

By the end of the 2nd fiscal quarter (March 2022) 14,315 licensees have renewed. Annualize that number and we get an estimated 28,360 license renewals which falls well short of the anticipated/targeted 42,000. That's a 16% shortfall (fytd) or about 13,640 licensees a year (42,000 - 28,360) not renewing and leaving the profession.

I don't have the data to determine if there's typically a very healthy upward spike in renewals each year during the 3rd and 4th fiscal quarters, or if the annual trendline remains fairly consistent. I'm speculating that there's a mild bump during those last two quarters (tend to be more birthdays during the Fall season), let's just hope its a big bump, cause 13,640 licensees lost is a lot of people!

New Licenses Issued

This begs the question, are we replacing these lost counselors at the same or faster pace than we're losing them? The answer appears to be, "No", and here's the numbers according to BHEC.

The current annual, projected number of new licensees is 7,800 per year. Through the end of the 2nd fiscal quarter we've seen 4,749 new licenses issued across all 4 Boards. (I asked, and the break-down per Board was not available.)

Extrapolate that number to an annual figure and the probable annual number of new licenses issued comes to 9,598. That would be a "surplus" of 1,798 licensees over the target 7,800. That's a good thing but here's a few things I simply don't know the answer to. Yet.

1. Does the number of new licenses issued include associates? (I assume so but....)

2. Does an Associate who "graduates" to full licensure count as a new license issued or just an upgrade?

Summary: Bottom-Line This For Me

If my understanding of the BHEC provided numbers is correct, we're on track to lose 13,640 licensees this year across all 4 Boards. We're also on track to issue 9,598 new licenses which leaves us a shortfall of 4,402 working licensees (13,640 - 9,598). We're going backwards.

1. We're replacing (mostly) seasoned professionals with (mostly) associates. We all have to start sometime but my point is that the experience pool is taking a hit each and every year if we stay on the track we're on.

2. If we do experience a bump in the 3rd/4th quarter renewal numbers, that will lower the 4,402 renewal deficit number somewhat. I doubt that bump would be sufficient to cover the entire 4,402 (that would be a big bump!) so that would still leave us with fewer practicing, experienced licensees than we had last year.

Which of course, really begs the question, why are counselors leaving in such numbers and how do we plug the hole? Or is this a normal attrition rate and do we even have a problem?

Hang in there, the world needs who you were born to be. You're doing a great job and we need you.

Plan Smart. Be Safe. Serve Others.

Kathleen Mills, LPC-S, CEAP